The personal computer market is stable for the first time in two years

The global personal computer market is stable for the first time in two years. A recovery in the computer market is evidenced by reports from research companies Gartner, IDC and Citi Research. Gartner reported an increase in shipments of personal computers (PCs) by 0.1% to 75.8 million devices in the second quarter of 2014 compared to the same period in 2013. IDC reports a decline over the same period by 1.7%, but a decrease turned out to be significantly less than forecasts, analysts say. Citi previously believed that in the second quarter of 2014 shipments of PCs will decrease by 5%, IDC assumed that the fall will be more than 7%. Citi recorded a record decrease in shipments (by 12% yoy) in the 1st quarter of 2013.

Analysts from all three research companies agree that developed markets have helped the PC and laptop market. In April, after Microsoft stopped supporting Windows XP, these markets began large-scale replacement of old computers with new ones. It coincided with the post-crisis US economic recovery and job growth. It was this circumstance, and not the refusal to support Windows XP, that had a major impact on the computer market, Citi analysts emphasize. IDC also mentions the ongoing PC replacement in the corporate sector in its report. At the same time, the demand for home PCs turned out to be unexpectedly high - users are interested in inexpensive computers, as well as devices with the Google Chrome operating system, IDC believes desktop support engineer.

The rapid growth of the global PC market is constrained by sluggish dynamics in emerging markets, according to reports from Citi and IDC. According to senior analyst at Gartner Mikako Kitagawa, the recovery in demand for computers in developing countries is hampered by the widespread use of cheap tablets. Consumers are spending money on them that they could have spent on PCs, which means it will take longer for emerging markets to stabilize, Kitagawa said.

According to IDC, the Russian PC market has been falling since the 3rd quarter of 2012. At the same time, in the 4th quarter there was a sharp decline in supplies of laptops to Russia (-30.6% over the same period in 2011). In the 1st quarter of 2014, 1.77 million desktop and laptop PCs were sold in Russia, which is 23.6% less than in the 1st quarter of 2013. At the same time, shipments of desktop PCs decreased by 16%, and laptops - by 28%. In the II quarter of 2014, the personal computer market will continue to decline, predicts IDC analyst Natalya Vinogradova. The refusal to support Windows XP did not have a significant impact on the Russian corporate segment, she notes. Instead of buying a new device running Windows 8 (as is the case in Europe), Russian companies are switching to Windows 7 without replacing their PCs, Vinogradova explains.

In Russia, the decline in demand for PCs began later than the global one, and later stabilization will come, says the president of Euroset, Alexander Malis. Laptops have a market, he is sure. Some of the tasks that were previously solved using desktops and laptops are now solved using tablets, but many tasks cannot be solved using tablet PCs, he notes. In 2014, the Russian market of laptops, stationary computers and all-in-ones shows some decline, but it is less noticeable than in 2013, when the decline was 20-25%, said a representative of M.video. Most likely, the segment will stabilize towards the end of 2014, he predicts. This is due to the fact that there is no full replacement for laptops and desktops, explains a representative of the retail chain. Until a few years ago, home computers and laptops were updated about once a year, the cycle is now two years or more, he adds. The stabilization and insignificant growth of the Russian PC can begin from the middle of 2015 - by that time, many potential buyers will close their consumer loans, suggests Anna Trofimova, a representative of Media Markt.